Can the three door problem predict the God’s choice?

You’re probably familiar with the 3 door problem, made famous by Marilyn Vos Savant. I have tried to add a new twist to the problem to show its implications for some real life issues.

First consider the original problem:

  1. You’re a contestant on a game show. There is a prize behind one of three doors (the other two doors don’t have prizes). You are told to pick one door, so you do.
  2. However. . . before your door is opened, the game show host intervenes. He opens one of the other doors and shows you that there is no prize behind it. He then gives you the option of staying with your original pick or switching to the other unopened door.
  3. Should you switch doors

Solution

You should always switch, because the probability of getting the prize is more if you switch (66.67%) – more precisely its double than if you do not switch (33.33%).

A simple php program by Fane Henderson which simulates it, confirms the results.

Simple Explanation

case 1. If the contestant picks a door, his chances of winning are 1/3
case 2. If the contestant is offered to pick two doors, his chances of winning are 2/3.

If the contestant picks a door and sticks to it this is case 1

If the contestant is offered to switch after picking a door, and showing an empty door is exactly the same if he picks a door exchanges the selected for the remaining two doors and then the host opens the door, from his just exchanged doors, with no prize behind it. This is case 2 and hence the chances of winning are 2/3

A Little Twist

Assume that God is the Host and He has offered three doors namely J,
C and I to you. You have selected a one (though generally its not an active choice). Then God opens a door from the remaining to reveal that reward is not behind that door. He then offers you to switch the door. Will you switch?

What we can not do is to choose a door (which all of us actively or passively, already had) and then ask God to show us the door behind which there is no reward and then decide to stick or to switch, but what we can easily do is:

  1. Assume that the Switching gives us the 2/3 chances of winning (the popular 3door problem result)
  2. Do the iterations for all of the population associated with any of these “Doors”.
  3. Assume a simple chronological order J => C => I which means that:
    1. No one can choose J
    2. J can choose C
    3. C can choose I (b. & c. implies J can choose
      I as well)
    4. I cannot choose any
  4. While doing these iterations actually assign the number of persons lining up for J, C and I to make these statistical analysis close to real, and keeping in mind the constraints of No. 3 (or by assigning it a
    weight-age (from 0 to 100% for different case studies) to make the decision of switch.
  5. Check out that which of the Door after performing this switching iteration process (No. 4) have most of the people lined up behind it.
  6. God’s design can not push the most to take His wrath and hence most of the people will be standing behind the “God’s Door”

I am not writing any simulation code to do it for you. You are at liberty to do the simulations the very way you like them with whatever constraints you like. I am not closing the chapter here, rather its just a prelude to another way of knowing His Thoughts.

Author: Irfan R. Toor

4 thoughts on “Can the three door problem predict the God’s choice?”

  1. A CONVERSATION
    An atheist professor of philosophy speaks to his class on the problem science has with God, The Almighty.
    He asks one of his new Muslim students to stand and…..
    Professor: You are a Muslim, aren’t you, son?
    Student : Yes, sir.
    Prof: So you believe in God?
    Student : Absolutely, sir.
    Prof: Is God good?
    Student : Sure.
    Prof: Is God all-powerful?
    Student : Yes.
    Prof: My brother died of cancer even though he prayed to God to heal him. Most of us would attempt to help others who are ill. But God di dn’t. How is this God good then? Hmm?
    (Student is silent.)
    Prof: You can’t answer, can you? Let’s start again, young fella. Is God good?
    Student :Yes.
    Prof: Is Satan good?
    Student : No.
    Prof: Where does Satan come from?
    Student : From…God…
    Prof: That’s right. Tell me son, is there evil in this world?
    Student : Yes.
    Prof: Evil is everywhere, isn’t it? And God did make everything. Correct?
    Student : Yes.
    Prof: So who created evil?
    (Student does not answer.)
    Prof: Is there sickness? Immorality? Hatred? Ugliness? All these terrible things exist in the world, don’t they?
    Student :Yes, sir.
    Prof: So, who created them?
    (Student has no answer.)
    Prof: Science says you have 5 senses you use to identify and observe the world around you. Tell me, son…Have you ever seen God?
    Student: No, sir.
    Prof: Tell us if you have ever heard your God?
    Student : No , sir.
    Prof: Have you ever felt your God, tasted your God, smelt your God?
    Have you ever had any sensory perception of God for that matter?
    Student : No, sir. I’m afraid I haven’t.
    Prof: Yet you still believe in Him?
    Student : Yes.
    Prof: According to empirical, testable, demonstrable protocol, science says your GOD doesn’t exist. What do you say to that, son?
    Student : Nothing. I only have my faith.
    Prof: Yes. Faith. And that is the problem science has.
    Student : Professor, is there such a thing as heat?
    Prof: Yes.
    Student : And is there such a thing as cold?
    Prof: Yes.
    Student : No sir. There isn’t.
    (The lecture theatre becomes very quiet with this turn of events.)
    Student : Sir, you can have lots of heat, even more heat, superheat, mega heat, white heat, a little heat or no heat. But we don’t have anything called cold. We can hit 458 degrees below zero which is no heat, but we can’t go any further after that. There is no such thing as cold. Cold is only a word we use to describe the absence of heat. We cannot measure cold.
    Heat is energy. Cold is not the opposite of heat, sir, just the absence of it.
    (There is pin-drop silence in the lecture theatre.)
    Student : What about darkness, Professor? Is there such a thing as darkness?
    Prof: Yes. What is night if there isn’t darkness?
    Student : You’re wrong again, sir. Darkness is the absence of something, You can have low light, normal light, bright light, flashing light….But if you have no light constantly, you have nothing and it’s c alled darkness, isn’t it? In reality, darkness isn’t. If it were you would be able to make darkness darker, wouldn’t you?
    Prof: So what is the point you are making, young man?
    Student : Sir, my point is your philosophical premise is flawed.
    Prof: Flawed? Can you explain how?
    Student : Sir, you are working on the premise of duality.
    You argue there is life and then there is death, a good God and a bad God. You are viewing the concept of God as something finite, something we can measure. Sir, science can’t even explain a thought. It uses electricity and magnetism, but has never seen, much less fully understood either one.
    To view death as the opposite of life is to be ignorant of the fact that death cannot exist as a substantive thing. Death is not the opposite of life: just the absence of it.
    Now tell me, Professor. Do you teach your students that they evolved from a monkey?
    Prof: If you are referring to the natural evolutionary process, yes, of course, I do.
    Student : Have you ever observed evolution with your own eyes, sir?
    (The Professor shakes his head with a smile, beginning to realize
    where the argument is going.)
    Student : Since no one has ever observed the process of evolution at work and c annot even prove that this process is an on-going endeavour, are you not t eaching your opinion, sir? Are you not a scientist but a preacher?
    (The class is in uproar.)
    Student : Is there anyone in the class who has ever seen the Professor’s brain?
    (The class breaks out into laughter.)
    Student : Is there anyone here who has ever heard the Professor’s brain, felt it, touched or smelt it?…..No one appears to have done so.
    So, according to the established rules of empirical, stable, demonstrable protocol, science says that you have no brain, sir. With all due respect, sir, how do we then trust your lectures, sir? (The room is silent. The professor stares at the student, his face unfathomable.)
    Prof: I guess you’ll have to take them on faith, son.
    Student : That is it sir.. The link between man & god is FAITH. That is all that keeps things moving & alive.

  2. I would not switch… because probabilty is after opening one door will changes to 1/2.
    furthermore if my faith is on door no 2 then it will remain.
    would not changed afer more options 🙂

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